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The Editor in Chief of The Economist illuminates what global issues mattered in the last century--and how the ways in which we deal with them will shape our lives in the next
The attacks on September 11th, 2001, shook the rich West out of its complacency; suddenly, peace looked to be in peril. Even before that time prosperity was endangered, as campaigns mounted against the purported evils of capitalist globalization, such as inequality, pollution, and financial instability, and as America's high-tech stockmarket boom turned to bust. Yet, in the decade following the end of the Cold War, prospects had looked so rosy, with peace prevailing among the world's great powers, with billions of people joining the world market economy, and with great waves of technological change driving economies forwards.
What to make of such confusion and disappointment? What will the 21st century be like now? Bill Emmott, editor of the world's leading current affairs weekly, The Economist, argues that the best way to think about the future is to look back at the past, at the forces that have shaped our world and at what they tell us about the things that really matter in determining whether we are at peace or at war, in a state of liberty or repression, in a period of prosperity or of depression. From the twentieth century we can learn that two questions matter above all others: Will America continue to lead the world and to protect its peace? And will we continue to accept capitalism, with all its strengths and weaknesses, or will it be challenged once again? Bill Emmott's 20:21 Vision provides the answers that matter for all our lives in the twenty-first century.
- Sales Rank: #5786331 in Books
- Published on: 2003-02-07
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 1.25" h x 6.25" w x 9.25" l, 1.40 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 384 pages
From Publishers Weekly
Emmott, who predicted in 1989 that Japan's economic ascent would falter (in The Sun Also Sets), now applies his powers of conjecture again to project how broad historical forces will shape the 21st century, based on an analysis of the 20th. Editor in chief of the Economist, Emmott is a believer in the relative benevolence of American dominance and the relative rewards of unleashed capitalism. The two most important dynamics of the 20th century, he says, were the "United States taking over from Britain" as the protector of global order and capitalism's struggle against its authoritarian antagonists. Emmott believes the most crucial questions for the 21st century are whether America "will continue to keep the peace" and whether "capitalism will survive." Assessing the potential threats to American supremacy-China, Japan, the European Union, terrorism and the precariousness of America's commitment to internationalism-Emmott is cautiously optimistic about America's capacity to continue its leadership role. He is sometimes uncritical in prescribing freer markets as a panacea, but his endorsement of capitalism is carefully qualified. He identifies four flaws threatening its survival: Capitalism is "Unpopular," "Unstable," "Unequal" and "Unclean," in the words of his chapter headings. Despite limited government interventions to correct these dysfunctions, Emmott is hopeful that capitalism can expand its domain in the coming century. It is a wide-ranging and speculative project, and Emmott occasionally floats off into a breezy punditry. But mostly, his arguments are well grounded and his vision of the future is insightful.
Copyright 2003 Reed Business Information, Inc.
From Library Journal
As the Economist's editor in chief contemplates the shift from the prosperous Nineties to today's more sober clime, he asks whether capitalism and America itself will retain their power.
Copyright 2002 Reed Business Information, Inc.
From Booklist
As the abatement of the cold war released international politics and economics to flow in new directions, Emmott observed affairs from one of the most influential posts in journalism: the editorship of the Economist. His book will draw keen attention because of his prognostications about the world's next decades, especially considering trends of the 1990s indicative of danger and instability, including currency collapses, global warming, Islamic terrorism, and Chinese-American friction. Although he cautions readers to remain calm, Emmott elucidates myriad ways the international environment could dramatically deteriorate. However, he also posits that ameliorating trends will be ascendant, provided that America retains global hegemony and capitalism "retains the current, unusual allegiance it commands around the world." Emmott's sly injection of the word unusual underpins his survey of capitalism's twentieth-century history, in which it was accepted (except where abolished) for its bounty but resented for its inherent accentuation of inequality. A sensible, comprehensible package of prophecies. Gilbert Taylor
Copyright � American Library Association. All rights reserved
Most helpful customer reviews
4 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
Past lessons applied to the future.
By Dex Randall Howard
(Note to Amazon: Over a month ago, I wrote the following review. Now and then, would access the title to see if the review had been posted. It had not. Last night, 10 January, I accessed Amazon's page with all my reviews and discovered the review was posted on that page. I returned to the book's page, but my review was not there. So, the review is posted on the page with all my reviews, but not on the review page for the book. Oddly, at least four people have read the view, how did they read it?)
The review title above was stolen from the book's subtitle. Mr. Emmontt's aim is not to predict the future, but to discover in last century's history those forces driving history.
To that end, the first part of the book devotes a chapter each to the histories of the United States, Europe & Russia, China and Japan. It ends with a chapter on world conflict and terror. The second part's chapters look at capitalism from the perspectives of booms & busts, social perceptions, domestic inequality, international inequality and the environment. There is both an introductory and concluding chapter.
Since a few commented on the author's analysis of China, I'll provide what I read him to say:
1.China is not like Imperial Germany, but perhaps more like Imperial Japan in the early decade of the 20th century.
2. Using traditional economic indicators, China is not yet the economic giant some envision. A few examples:
(a) China's share of world merchandise exports is around that of the Netherlands.
(b) China's GDP/person is around that of Sri Lanka.
(c) If purchasing power parity is used, then China's GDP is bigger than Japan's, but behind Thailand's and only 1/4 Korea's.
(d) Direct foregin investment into Japan is around 1/3 of Sweden's and 1/2 of the United Kingdom.
Several of these measures exclude Hong Kong. Some would object, but Hong Kong's numbers can be easily added and should the result significantly change China's position, what would that suggest about China's economic system relative to Hong Kong's?
The above numbers are on pp. 69-71
That said, the author begins by saying, ~ " ...With a population of 1.3 billion, it's natural rank ought again to be as the world's largest economy ... achieved with quite moderate levels of growth, if substained a few decades ... overtaking America as the world's largest economy sometime in the second or third decade of this century ... yet what would be geniunely disturbing would be if China failed to achieve its natural position as the world's largest economy ... for this would almost certainly mean that there had been some sort of economic breakdown, which would probably mean there had been a political breakdown..."
Much of the chapter examines how China's polity and economy interacted in the 20th century since similar pressures will continue into the 21st century.
It's a fine book. Concise and entertaining.
3 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
The prognosis of a paranoid optimist
By N. Tsafos
Visions of the future tend to be apocalyptic, whether it be grand geopolitical adjustments, the fear that growth will devastate the environment, or that the Malthusian trap will finally enclose humankind. In fact these types of prophesies make for good reading but, usually, silly predictions. To those who expect to read about the "fall of great powers," "coming anarchies," "clash of civilizations," or "end of histories," (to name a few futuristic bestsellers), Bill Emmott's book will appear rather dull and unimaginative. But it may well turn out to be more accurate than most other looks into the crystal ball.
Broadly speaking, forecasts suffer from two drawbacks: either they focus too much on detail and miss important underlying trends, or they try to conceive of a grand vision and lose touch with reality in the process. Bill Emmott, editor of The Economist since 1993, has tried to overcome these two problems by synthesizing his journalistic attention to detail with his historical instincts that add perspective to his argument. The product is a carefully balanced vision of where the world is headed.
Mr. Emmott believes that two big questions will define the fate of this century: will American hegemony continue and will capitalism survive? For both, he is optimistic. America's main elements of power, he argues, are unaltered-its tolerance of capitalism, its meritocracy and its focus on education. At the same time, potential rivals, for different reasons, are unlikely to take over any time soon. Terrorism, while important, is also unlikely to play a world-altering role in the coming years.
What about capitalism? After the end of the cold war, capitalism's intellectual and political allegiance has grown stronger. This trend is likely to continue, provided that capitalism deals with its biggest challenges-its unpopularity, uncleanness, inequality, and instability. Mr. Emmott goes at great length to show that the capitalist future is not certain-but he also shows with great conviction that most objections to capitalism are unfounded.
Mr. Emmott writes that he looks into the future with the outlook of a paranoid optimist: progress will continue, albeit with setbacks here and there. All too often, books on the future take on a big claim and foresee some radical new world order. A book predicting that the status quo will continue well into this century seems out of place with the futuristic literature. That may disappoint many readers. But that does not mean that Mr. Emmott is not right.
2 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
"Twentieth-Century Lessons for the Twenty-first Century"
By Dex Randall Howard
The review title above was stolen from the book's subtitle. Mr. Emmontt's aim is not to predict the future, but to discover in last century's history those forces driving history.
To that end, the first part of the book devotes a chapter each to the histories of the United States, Europe & Russia, China and Japan. It ends with a chapter on world conflict and terror. The second part's chapters look at capitalism from the perspectives of booms & busts, social perceptions, domestic inequality, international inequality and the environment. There is both an introductory and concluding chapter.
Since a few commented on the author's analysis of China, I'll provide what I read him to say:
1.China is not like Imperial Germany, but perhaps more like Imperial Japan in the early decade of the 20th century.
2. Using traditional economic indicators, China is not yet the economic giant some envision. A few examples:
(a) China's share of world merchandise exports is around that of the Netherlands.
(b) China's GDP/person is around that of Sri Lanka.
(c) If purchasing power parity is used, then China's GDP is bigger than Japan's, but behind Thailand's and only 1/4 Korea's.
(d) Direct foregin investment into Japan is around 1/3 of Sweden's and 1/2 of the United Kingdom.
Several of these measures exclude Hong Kong. Some would object, but Hong Kong's numbers can be easily added and should the result significantly change China's position, what would that suggest about China's economic system relative to Hong Kong's?
The above numbers are on pp. 69-71
That said, the author begins by saying, ~ " ...With a population of 1.3 billion, it's natural rank ought again to be as the world's largest economy ... achieved with quite moderate levels of growth, if substained a few decades ... overtaking America as the world's largest economy sometime in the second or third decade of this century ... yet what would be geniunely disturbing would be if China failed to achieve its natural position as the world's largest economy ... for this would almost certainly mean that there had been some sort of economic breakdown, which would probably mean there had been a political breakdown..."
Much of the chapter examines how China's polity and economy interacted in the 20th century since similar pressures will continue into the 21st century.
It's a fine book. Concise and entertaining.
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